论坛讲座

论坛讲座

网站首页 > 论坛讲座 > 正文

北航经商院 • 经济学双周论坛 第八期

发布时间: 2018/04/13 10:23:35     点击次数:次   打印本页

尊敬的各位老师:

你们好!

“北航经商院 • 经济学双周论坛”将在本周迎来第八期讨论,具体安排如下:

时间:本周五(4月13日)中午12:00-14:00

地点:新主楼A1138。

在此诚挚邀请您参与讨论和分享!

题目: 美元的网络边界:价格粘性和汇率弹性

Title: Online Borders of the U.S. Dollar: Price Stickiness and Exchange Rate Sensitivities

主讲人: 贾盾

Presenter: Dun JIA

摘要 (Abstract):

本文利用美国某大型电商平台的跨境贸易交易数据为汇率传递机制提供了新的证据。证据显示, 即使所有交易都以美元结算 ,汇率传导进入美国进口价格程度依然较大(中期传导度约45%)。汇率传递进入进口价格可以实现完全渗透,且收敛速度较快(六个月半衰期)。这些结果补充了已有文献仅使用海关调查数据关于此问题的研究,其结论认为美元存在“特有的绝缘性”。我们的研究表明,当越来越多的跨境交易在电商平台上实现后,美元对汇率波动将会越来越敏感。这些发现有助于重新认识美国货币政策的溢出效应和输入性通货膨胀。

This paper, exploiting the cross-border trade transaction-level data of a leading U.S. online marketplace, provides novel evidence that the Dollar-RMB exchange rate pass-through into the online U.S. import prices can be large (medium run pass-through of 45 percent) and the convergence to a complete pass-through is fast (half-life six months) even when all trades are settled in U.S. dollars. These results complement the evidence found in the studies using offline survey data in favor of the “privileged insularity” of U.S. dollar. Our findings suggest that the U.S. dollar can be increasingly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations when more cross-border trades are settled over the virtual borders. These results have great implications for spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy and imported inflation. With sizeable heterogeneity of the price adjustment frequencies and the magnitudes of exchange rate pass-through across the disaggregated goods categories, higher price stickiness is associated with lower long run exchange rate pass-through, even conditional on price changes.

主讲人简介 (Introduction):

贾盾,中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院助理教授,2016年毕业于马里兰大学,获经济学博士学位。研究兴趣与方向包括宏观经济学,货币经济学,资产定价,数值分析与异质性模型算法,中国经济。当前主要工作包括三个方面:在具有异质性的一般均衡模型框架内探索不完备信息和不确定性对于厂商投资效率以及就业市场的影响;度量货币政策信号精度并量化信息摩擦之于货币政策有效性的作用;基于高频贸易数据分析汇率传递机制。

Calvin Dun Jia, Assistant Professor at Hanqing Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance, Renmin University of China. His research interests lie both in theoretical and empirical Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Computational Economics, Macro-based Asset Pricing, and Chinese Economy. His ongoing projects work to examine the relationship among conomic uncertainty, firm dynamics, and information frictions in heterogeneous-agent models. Besides, he is working with big data such as E-commerce prices and applying textual analysis in various testing of macro-finance theories. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from University of Maryland, College Park in 2016.

* 具体详情,也可扫描下方微信二维码: