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北航经商院 • 经济学双周论坛 第十七期

发布时间: 2018/10/24 10:59:04     点击次数:次   打印本页

北航经商院 • 经济学双周论坛 第十七期

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“北航经商院 • 经济学双周论坛”将在本周迎来第十七期讨论,具体安排如下:

时间:本周五(10月26日)中午12:00-14:00

地点:新主楼A1028

在此诚挚邀请您参与讨论和分享!

题目: 夜间灯光与经济增长

TitleIlluminating Economic Growth

主讲人:姚佳雄

Presenter:Jiaxiong Yao

摘要(Abstract):

这篇文章运用夜间灯光数据研究人均国民生产总值官方数据的不确定性。在度量误差模型的框架下,我们估计夜间灯光对国民生产总值的弹性,同时估计官方数据误差的分布。结合灯光的预测和官方数据,我们构造一个更加准确的估计。我们发现夜间灯光对国民生产总值的弹性随着人均收入的增加而从2.5递减到0. 5.人均国民生产总值的不确定性在低收入国家很高。这种不确定性主要来自于两方面:战乱时期经济测量的不准确和系统性的偏差。

This paper seeks to illuminate the uncertainty in official GDP per capita measures with a focus on low income countries. Using satellite-recorded nighttime lights as a proxy for GDP per capita, we estimate the elasticity of nighttime lights to income and the distribution of errors in official GDP per capita data in a measurement error model framework. We then construct a more precise measure of GDP per capita using both nighttime lights and official national accounts data. We find that the elasticity decreases from well above 2 to below 0.5 as GDP per capita rises. GDP per capita measures are less precise for low income countries and nighttime lights can play a bigger role in improving such measures. The impreciseness mainly stems from two sources: poor measurement of the economy disrupted by conflicts and systemic recording difference.

主讲人简介(Introduction):

姚佳雄现就职于国际货币基金组织,目前研究课题为运用卫星图像研究经济增长。他2010毕业于清华大学数学系,2016年获得美国约翰霍普金斯大学经济学博士学位,主要研究方向包括消费金融,有微观基础的宏观经济,以及机器学习。

Jiaxiong Yao, an economist at the IMF, currently works on using satellite images to understand economic growth.He joined the IMF in 2016 after completing his doctoral degree in Economics from Johns Hopkins University. His research interests are in the areas of consumer finance, macroeconomics with micro foundations, and machine learning. He obtained his bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from Tsinghua University.

经济与商学研究院

2018年10月24日