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冯明研究员“金融业扩张的结构性研究”讲座通知

发布时间: 2019/10/16 16:47:08     点击次数:次   打印本页

北航经商院 • 经济学双周论坛 第37  

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“北航经商院 • 经济学双周论坛”将在本周五迎来第37期讨论,具体安排如下:  

时间:本周五(1018日)中午12:00-14:00  

地点:新主楼A1028  

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题目金融业扩张的结构性研究——基于增加值与投入产出视角

      Title: Structural Analysis of the Financial Industry Expansion in China: the Perspective of Value-Added and Input-Output

   主讲人冯明

     Speaker:  Ming FENG

   摘要Abstract

金融业扩张是近年来我国经济中的一个突出事实,集中体现之一是金融业增加值占GDP比重的大幅攀升,这引起了学术研究和相关政策部门的高度关注和争论。然而,对金融业扩张的原因,文献中尚缺乏深入细致的定量研究,深入到结构层面的研究更显不足。本文基于投入产出表数据,运用结构分解分析方法将金融业增加值占GDP比重的上升分解为相对价格因素相对增加值率因素国内供给率因素生产结构因素最终需求因素等五个因素的贡献。研究发现,生产结构因素、相对价格因素和相对增加值率因素的贡献较大,三者加起来能够解释2005-2015年期间金融业增加值占GDP比重上升的将近90%。研究还发现,中间投入渠道是金融业扩张的主渠道,金融业直接投入在国民经济总投入中的占比由2005年的1.44%上升至2015年的3.47%,其中价格因素贡献了45.31%,行业结构转型因素仅贡献了8.50%,行业自身因素贡献了46.18%——除农林牧渔业和住宿餐饮业之外的其他所有行业对金融业直接投入的依赖度都出现了上升,尽管程度存在差别。本文还进一步对三段典型时期的金融业扩张进行了比较研究,发现金融业扩张的原因在不同宏观经济形势和政策环境下存在较大结构性差异。这些发现有助于在已有文献的基础上加深人们对金融业扩张的机制和结构的理解,从而为诸如理顺和优化金融与实体经济关系以及深化金融供给侧结构性改革等当前经济形势下的若干重要政策议题提供启示。  

The expansion of the financial industry is a prominent fact in the Chinese economy in recent years, as indicated by the sharply increasing share of financial industry’s value added in GDP. This phenomenon has aroused great concern and debate in academic research and related policy discussion. However, as to the reasons for the expansion of the financial industry, there still lacks in-depth quantitative research in the literature, especially the research deep into the structural level. In this paper, we use the Structural Decomposition Analysis method to decompose the increase of the share of financial industry's value added in GDP into the partial effects of five factors, which we name as the “relative price factor”, the “relative value-added ratio factor”, the “domestic supply ratio factor”, the “production structure factor”, and the "final demand factor". We find that the production structure factor, the relative price factor, and the relative value-added ratio factor have contributed to nearly 90% of the increase of the share of financial industry's value added in GDP from 2005 and 2015. Our analysis also confirms that the intermediate input channel is the main channel for the expansion of the financial industry. The proportion of the intermediate inputs from the financial industry in the total input rose from 1.44% in 2005 to 3.47% in 2015 for the whole economy. Among the two percentage point increase, the price factor contributed 45.31%, the industry structural transformation factor contributed 8.50%, while the industry's own factors contributed 46.18% – all the industries, except agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and accommodation and catering industry, saw an increase in their dependence on the financial industry, although the degree varies. We further conduct comparative study on the expansion of the financial industry in three typical periods, and find that the reasons varied in different macroeconomic situations and policy environments. These findings could enrich the literature on the mechanism and the structure of China’s financial industry expansion, and thus provide insights for the important policy issues nowadays such as optimizing the relation between finance and real economy, and deepening thesupply side structural reforms of the financial sector.  

   主讲人简介 (Introduction)

冯明,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院副研究员,综合经济研究部副主任,并担任清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心(CCWE)研究员。毕业于清华大学经济管理学院,获得金融学博士学位、经济学学士学位、法学学士学位。曾担任哈佛大学经济系访问学者、中国金融40人论坛青年研究员。主要研究方向为宏观经济学、金融学。  

Dr. FENG Ming, Associate Professor, National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is now the Deputy Director of Economic Research Department. His major research areas are macroeconomics and finance. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University in 2014, and his two Bachelor’s degree in Economics and in Law respectively from the School of Economics and Management and the School of Law, Tsinghua University in 2010. He served as a visiting scholar at the Department of Economics, Harvard University, as well as a youth researcher at the China Finance 40 Forum.  

 


 


 

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