报告题目：Navigating Fiscal Fog: Household Expectations in an Uncertain Fiscal Environment
报告人：郭俊杰，中央财经大学金融学院
时间：12.10 星期二（10：00 – 11：30）
地点：新主楼 A1140
讲座系列： 经 济
摘要:
Using a novel survey of U.S. households, we study how fiscal policy uncertainty affects household macroeconomic expectations and consumption-saving decisions. We employ randomized information treatments to induce exogenous changes in perceived fiscal policy uncertainty. The results show that fiscal uncertainty dampens the crowding-out effect on household spending by lowering expectations of interest rates. Additionally, the findings support Ricardian equivalence, as households anticipating higher fiscal spending growth expect increased future taxes. Employing a quantitative model calibrated with survey data, we show that fiscal uncertainty significantly reduces the government spending multiplier, primarily by dampening investment responses. These insights highlight the importance of effective fiscal policy communication in uncertain environments.
汇报人简介：
郭俊杰，中央财经大学金融学院副教授，分别于2020年和2014年获得美国印第安纳大学经济学博士学位以及中国人民大学金融学学士学位。研究领域为货币财政政策、宏观金融以及实证宏观，在《经济研究》、《管理世界》以及Journal of Applied Econometrics等国内外重要期刊发表十余篇论文并主持一项国家自然科学基金项目。相关咨政成果被省部级部门采纳。担任Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization、 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control、《世界经济》以及《金融评论》等中英文期刊的匿名审稿人。
