报告题目：Could Reward Uncertainty Encourage Social Referrals? Evidence from a Large-scale Field Experiment
报告人：Rodrigo Belo, Universidade Nova de Lisboa
时间：12.13 星期五（15：30 – 17：00）
地点：新主楼 A1028
讲座系列： 经 济
摘要:
The integration of uncertainty into referral reward structures by various platforms has opened new avenues for enhancing referral outcomes, a potential yet to be fully understood. To fill this gap, our research conducted a two-month randomized experiment with over 160,000 users to investigate the causal effects of uncertain rewards on social referral behaviors and to identify the mechanisms behind these effects. The result distinguishes between the effects of uncertainty on the sender’s rewards versus the recipient’s rewards. Our findings reveal that uncertainty in the sender’s reward leads to a 14% increase in the number of referrals, and recipients of these invitations are more likely to engage in additional referring activities. In contrast, uncertainty in the recipient’s reward results in a 48% reduction in referrals, with invited recipients displaying a decreased inclination to make further referrals. Using additional online experiments, we identified distinct mechanisms driving these asymmetric effects: on the sender’s side, the introduction of uncertainty alleviates feelings of guilt and prompts more strategic selection of recipients, resulting in higher rates of referral sharing and acceptance, and consequently, an increased total number of referrals. Conversely, on the recipient’s side, the negative effects of uncertainty are primarily due to a reduced perception of fairness and social pressure, which discourage recipients from engaging in the referral process. Our study sheds light on the complex dynamics of reward uncertainty in referral programs, offering novel insights into how it can be optimized to foster more engaged referral networks.
汇报人简介：
Rodrigo's research focuses on how digital technologies mediate interactions among economic agents. His research interests include how digitization and AI technologies are changing how individuals interact and influence each other (e.g., in media consumption, online dating, and technology-mediated learning), and on the implications for firms, their industries, and society at large. His work has been published in top journals in the field such as Management Science, MIS Quarterly, and Marketing Science. Rodrigo has led and collaborated in multiple projects with established firms and startups in the online and telecommunications sectors. His engagements include the design and deployment of large-scale real world randomized experiments to assess the effectiveness of marketing campaigns and to optimize online user engagement.
At Nova, Rodrigo teaches courses in the areas of Technology, Digital Economy, AI, Data Science and Business Analytics for MSc, MBA and Executive Education students.
Prior to joining Nova, Rodrigo was Associate Professor in Information Systems at the Department of Technology and Operations Management, Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, and earlier a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University, USA.
Rodrigo holds a PhD in Technological Change and Entrepreneurship from Carnegie Mellon University, an MSc in Engineering and Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University, and a BSc in Computer Science and Engineering from Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon. Before joining the academia Rodrigo worked as a software engineer and analyst in the transportation and government sectors.
