融实论坛
（2026年第4期，总第84期)
报告题目：The Power of Commitment and Optimal Capital Controls
承诺的力量与最优资本控制
汇报人： 聂光宇 教授，上海财经大学
时间： 2026年6月11日，星期四（13:30-15:00）
地点： 新主楼 A1148
邀请人： 李伟
报告摘要：
This paper examines whether governments strategically use capital controls to influence the intertemporal terms of trade, i.e., the rates of return on cross-border lending and borrowing. We develop a two-country dynamic model to compare optimal capital control policy under commitment versus discretion. Under discretion, the planner over-manipulates intertemporal prices by aggressively linking capital controls to net foreign assets, generating welfare losses relative to laissez-faire. In contrast, a Ramsey planner with commitment balances current and future price management; the resulting controls are less responsive to asset positions and deliver welfare gains, even though they are time-inconsistent. Using political constraints as a proxy for commitment power, we find that capital controls co-move strongly with net foreign assets only in countries with high policy discretion. Our results suggest that a lack of commitment drives strategic financial competition and produces inefficient global capital allocations.
嘉宾简介：
聂光宇，上海财经大学商学院副院长，教授，博士生导师，世界经济与贸易系主任。已在Journal of Development Economics（独作）、American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics、《经济研究》、《经济学（季刊）》等国内外一流期刊发表多篇论文，主持国家社会科学基金重大项目、自然科学基金面上项目等多项国家及省部级课题。荣获国家级青年人才、东方英才计划青年项目、上海市“曙光学者”、“浦江人才”、高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖（人文社会科学）、上海市哲学社会科学优秀成果奖、中国金融学术年会最佳论文奖、申万宏源奖教金等。多份研究报告被省部级机关采用，并得到国家主要领导人肯定性批示。
