经济学系列论坛
2026年第7期，总第41期
报告题目：Model-Directed Attention and the Persistence of Wrong Mental Models: Evidence from Firm Pricing
报告嘉宾：韩奕 中国人民大学应用经济学院 副教授
报告时间：10月28日，周三，10：00- 12：00
报告地点：新主楼A 1048
邀请人： 刘宁 副教授
论文摘要：We document a mechanism through which wrong mental models survive in data-rich environments: by remaining silent about the patterns they deem irrelevant, wrong models direct attention away from the patterns that refute them. We examine this in firm pricing under consumer intertemporal substitution (IS), where shifts in purchase timing add to the sales spike on the discount day and produce dips before and after. A simple model in which lower prices lead to higher sales is silent about the dips and attributes the spike entirely to new demand. In survey and administrative data from 13,000 gas station managers, over 40 percent neglect or underestimate IS, and those holding the simple model perceive demand as more elastic and set lower prices, which leads to lower profits. Online experiments provide causal evidence. Holding the data fixed, subjects assigned the simple model are less likely to recall the dips and more likely to neglect IS than those assigned the correct model, which explains the dips. Two interventions further support the mechanism. Prompting attention to the dips lowers neglect of IS, and encountering a peer's incomplete description of the correct model dislodges the simple model.
汇报人简介：韩奕，中国人民大学应用经济学院副教授。2012年、2014年分别获中国人民大学经济学学士、硕士学位，2020年获美国匹兹堡大学经济学博士学位。主要研究领域为行为经济学与发展经济学，同时关注能源与环境经济学，具体研究涉及个体认知偏差、区域经济增长以及能源消费与环境行为等。研究成果发表于Management Science、Journal of Development Economics、Environmental and Resource Economics及《经济学（季刊）》等国内外学术期刊。
