Fiscal consolidation in China: a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis
作者:Ren, XY ; Liu, ZX ; Jin, H
DOI10.1080/00036846.2023.2166668
在线发表FEB 2023
已索引2023-02-13
文献类型Article; Early Access
摘要
Inflation and overcapacity caused by fiscal expansion have begun to plague China's economy. The surge in public debt caused by the perennial high deficit rate has led to accumulated debt risk. The lessons of the European debt crisis have forced China to re-examine its debt sustainability. A larger and more systematic fiscal consolidation is urgent. Based on China's multiple fiscal accounts, this paper constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model suitable for China's scenario. By simulation, we evaluated the economic effects of revenue-based and spending-based fiscal consolidation and mixed consolidation and drew the following conclusions: (1) The success of fiscal consolidation requires paying a certain economic price. The industrial sectors closely related to the government bear more pressure from consolidation, which makes spending-based consolidation measures more advantageous in terms of cost because of their lower negative externalities. (2) China's social security system has mitigated the effect on households during periods of fiscal consolidation, but the social insurance fund bears greater losses. (3) The mixed strategy of combining revenue and spending balance the contradiction between economic development and industrial structure in consolidation. While protecting the industrial structure, this strategy can complete the consolidation goal at a small economic cost.
作者关键词Fiscal consolidationfiscal deficitpublic debtChina's multiple fiscal accountsdynamic CGE model
通讯作者地址
Jin, Hao
(通讯作者)
Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
地址
1 Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
电子邮件地址haojin.econ@gmail.com
原文下载地址：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036846.2023.2166668?journalCode=raec20
